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Thursday, November 17, 2016

The Impact of House Races on Senate and Presidential Outcomes

The Impact of House Races on Senate and Presidential Outcomes


The Democrats made two major blunders in 2016.   They embarked on a 50-state strategy even in states where they have little support.  They did not put nearly enough time or resources in House races in the rust belt.  The importance of putting money into House races in Midwest states is the major point that I want to stress in this post.

Some facts:

Wisconsin:

Republicans spent 18.4 million in Wisconsin House races compared to $4.6 million for Democrats.

Hillary Clinton did not visit the state once during the general election campaign.

Hillary Clinton lost the state by around 27,000 votes, around 1.0% of the vote.

Feingold lost his senate race by around 100,000 votes.  He was a heavy favorite in the state.

Make up of House in Wisconsin 5 Republican and 3 Democrats

Ohio:

In Ohio Republican House candidates outspent Democratic House candidates 14.3 to 3.3 million.


Lost Senate race and Presidential contest

Pennsylvania:

House expenditures in Pennsylvania:       
Republicans $19.6 million to Democrats $11.7 million


Lost senate race and presidential contest

A Comparison to South Carolina:

One of the people running for DNC chair  is from South Carolin.   He supports the 50-state strategy and has argued that South Carolina will be flipped soon.

This person is INSANE.    Here are two facts.

Hillary Clinton lost South Carolina by 14 percent of the vote.   this is huge.

In South Carolina Republican spent 4.5 million on House Races compared to 2.7 million for the Democrats.

This spending differential was much small than for the rust belt states.

Final Thought:  Victory for the Democrats is through the Rust Belt.

Donald Trump proved that money is not that important in politics because he was drastically outspent by Hillary Clinton.   However, the money figures are emblematic of effort.   Remember Hillary Clinton never even visited the rural areas of the rust belt and never even stepped into the state of Wisconsin.  

The Democrats need new realistic leadership that will target House races and look at the map that actually exists.   In my view, this involves replacing Pelosi as Minority leader and obtaining a realistic DNC chair that values working class voters.







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